Global Trade Under New Rules
New global trade rules are reshaping the international economic landscape, primarily manifested in the implementation of regional trade agreements, adjustments to export control policies, and the alignment of high-standard trade rules. The restructuring of international trade rules is essentially a game between developed and emerging economies, a struggle for the right to set trade rules. The global trading system has just experienced one of the most transformative years of the past century and is now entering a new phase that poses greater challenges to stability and growth. Despite US President Donald Trump's efforts to erect tariff barriers around the US, global commodity trade is expected to remain relatively healthy until 2025.
US Tariff Policy
Meanwhile, new trade developments have emerged from the US. On October 17, President Trump signed an executive order announcing a new 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy-duty trucks and their parts, and a 10% tariff on imported passenger vehicles, effective November 1. Although the policy was originally scheduled to take effect on October 1, it was postponed due to concerns from major US automakers. According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. imported nearly 245,000 medium and heavy-duty trucks last year, with a trade value exceeding $20 billion. The main sources were Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Finland.
Eurasian and Indian Policies
Eurasian countries extended anti-dumping measures, and India made new adjustments to import management.
The Eurasian Economic Commission decided to extend the anti-dumping measures on seamless steel pipes from China. This move aims to protect local industries from unfair competition, but may also have some impact on the export of seamless steel pipes from China. In addition, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) of the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry also issued an important announcement extending import licensing measures for computer products until December 31, 2025.
The U.S.-Led Path to Rule Restructuring
Technically Undermining Multilateral Mechanisms:
By invoking the "national security exception clause," the WTO dispute settlement mechanism is rendered ineffective. Simultaneously, new trade barriers such as "origin penetration testing" are established through regional agreements such as the USMCA, forming a network of exclusive rules.
USD Settlement Linked to Tariff Preferences:
Under the "reciprocal tariff" framework, allied companies meeting US technical standards are allowed to circumvent some tariffs through USD settlements, promoting the formation of a trade bloc with a dual "tariff-currency" linkage. Currently, USD settlements account for over 83% within the Free Trade Area of the Americas.
Competition for Digital Governance Power:
Blockchain technology is used to track the entire lifecycle of goods, automatically triggering punitive tariffs through smart contracts, extending trade regulation from physical boundaries to the digital space.
Conclusion
Global trade rules are undergoing unprecedented changes. The profound impact of the pandemic has not yet fully dissipated, geopolitical competition is becoming increasingly complex, technological advancements are driving rapid evolution of business models, and the shared demands of countries for climate governance are embedding environmental and social standards into trade rules. Rule-making is no longer limited to tariff adjustments but encompasses dimensions such as digital cross-border trade, supply chain resilience, sustainability, technical standards, and competitive neutrality. For businesses, understanding these changes and planning ahead is not only necessary to mitigate risks but also a prerequisite for seizing new opportunities. The following analysis outlines several key trends to help readers grasp the direction and underlying logic of global trade rules in the coming years.
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